retirement.org.nz

The report examines key influences on paid work, including, globalisation, technological change, economic and social policy, changing consumer preferences, demographics, changing gender roles, changes in unpaid work, and household and family change. It then explores the likely implications of changing demographic and workforce patterns by modelling possible future income patterns with particular emphasis on the year 2051. These pictures were built up by applying 1997, age and gender specific income patterns, to projected future population distributions. The modelling shows that superannuation payments become a severely increasing burden on those in paid work. Alternative scenarios explore the possible implications of changes in birth rates and in migration. Higher birth rates and increased immigration both have the potential to increase the future proportion of working aged people within the total population, and so lower the relative cost of superannuation. Possible effects of later retirement, lower, unemployment and increased female participation in paid work are also explored. Although some of these variations are quite strong acting, none return the balance between taxes on personal incomes and government transfer payments, including superannuation, to anything like that prevailing in 1996. Finally, the modelling is juxtaposed with the three policy options explored in the Periodic Review Group\'s 1997 Interim Report: raising the age of eligibility, lowering pension rates relative to the average wage; and targeting public superannuation entitlements. Each policy option needs to be kept under review as a possible response to emergent fiscal pressures. 2001.
 

Attachment
Implications of labour market change for retirement income policy